Mojave, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

873
FXUS65 KVEF 151015
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
315 AM PDT Tue Apr 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Today through midweek, expect similar temperatures. Late-
week, a dynamic weather system moves into the region, which will
increase chances of precipitation, gusty winds, and will cool off
temperatures substantially.
&&


.SHORT TERM...Today and Wednesday.

Last night, a shortwave pushed inland and brought modest moisture to
the region by way of a northward moving swath of sprinkles across
the forecast area. Meanwhile, an upper-level low continues to deepen
in the southeastern Pacific Ocean and will continue to meander
closer to the coastline over the next few days, ushering moisture
into the Desert Southwest. Additionally, a trough will start to drop
through the Intermountain West, placing our forecast area in a
convergence zone. This combination of moisture advection and
convergence ascent will result in increased PoPs across the southern
Great Basin on Wednesday and gusty south-southwest winds. Rainfall
amounts will generally be low, but will favor the higher terrain
with occasional lightning possible. More detail regarding these
phasing systems and what that looks like for late-week into the
weekend can be found in the LONG TERM discussion.

Wednesday will be the last day of "warm" temperatures for the week,
with persistent "Minor" Heat Risk across desert valleys.


.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

The closed low and northern shortwave trough begin to phase on
Thursday, resulting in a larger, positively-tilted trough over the
western US. At the surface, guidance shows a cold front sliding
southward through the southern Great Basin and northern Mojave
Desert. The frontal boundary should serve as the focus for
precipitation as moisture pools along ahead of it and underneath
the colder air aloft. Expecting scattered shower and isolated
thunderstorms to develop along the front Thursday afternoon, with
activity potentially continuing Thursday night and Friday as the
front sags southward. There`s a fair amount of uncertainty in
model guidance regarding the convective environment Thursday-
Friday, mainly due to discrepancies in the magnitude of low-level
moisture and its overlap with the coldest air aloft. However, it
is likely that at least modest instability (100+ J/kg) will occur.
With wet bulb zero heights roughly 4500-6000 ft AGL in forecast
soundings, would not be surprised to see graupel and/or small hail
with the more intense convection. While PWATs are forecast to be
above the 90th percentile of climatology, this is nothing like
monsoonal moisture, so it`ll take training storms to cause any
flood concerns, and that would likely be localized and relatively
minor. On the wintry side, snow levels drop from over 8000 ft down
to ~6500 ft, so some late-season minor snow accumulations are
likely in the Spring Mountains and Sierra.

Other than the precipitation chances, noteworthy changes to the
weather include gusty winds and below-normal temperatures. Strongest
winds are expected Thursday, with minor wind impacts likely (70%
chance) across western San Bernardino County. Elsewhere, chances for
wind impacts are 30-50%, with widespread gusts of 25-40 mph
expected. Once the low closes off over our area on Friday, the risk
for impactful winds decreases. Temperature-wise, highs return to
seasonal values on Thursday but drop 5-15 degrees below normal on
Friday.

As this system pushes east and moves out over the weekend, dry
conditions return and temperatures moderate. By Sunday-Monday,
temperatures are forecast to be near-normal for mid-April. While
we`ll likely stay dry, the pattern doesn`t necessarily go quiet
next week as subsequent weak troughs may induce Springtime winds.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...
Light winds persist this evening but southerly or
southeasterly winds with intermittent higher gusts to 15-20 kt are
still possible overnight as some virga moves through aloft. There
will be plenty of high level clouds through the overnight with
ceilings around 15kft. After 10Z, winds again become light, before
redeveloping out of the southeast after daybreak. Less cloud cover
anticipated tomorrow.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package... At KVGT and KHND,
generally under 10 kts through a period of gusty southerly winds
remains possible through 10z. Otherwise, decreasing clouds expected
by daybreak with southerly or southeasterly winds expected during
the day at most of the regional terminals, with gusts of 15 to 20
knots possible.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soulat
LONG TERM...Woods
AVIATION...Outler

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter